Articles & Analysis

 

  • Ethiopia COVID-19
  • Africa COVID-19
  • World COVID-19

 

Analysis

Economic and Welfare Effects of COVID-19 and Responses in Ethiopia: Initial insights

“The key conclusion is that the pandemic will slow down economic growth and exacerbate poverty. The results show that, depending on containment efforts and duration, the pandemic could reduce gross domestic product by 2.2-9.9%”

COVID-19: Ethiopia Potential impact on jobs & income & short-term policy options

“In Ethiopia, preliminary estimations suggest, over the next 3 months, 1.41 Mill jobs are threatened using a medium-estimate (low-estimate 727K, high-estimate 2.5 M), and an income loss for urban self-employed in services at $265 M, using a medium-estimate (low-estimate $132 M, high-estimate $296 M)”

Macroeconomic Impacts of the Corona Virus: A Preliminary Assessment for Ethiopia

“Even with just the current sub-set of affected sectors, the economic impacts will be considerable: by our estimates, growth will be 2.5 percentage points lower next year (falling to 5 percent) and net balance payments impact close to $1.5 billion.”

Impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on vegetable value chains in Ethiopia

“First, urban demand for fruits and vegetables—high value, nutritionally rich foods—is declining. It is possible that this is driven by misinformation regarding the risk of contracting COVID-19 from produce. Second, trade is affected by travel bans as well as reduced competition, because traders are less willing to travel to production areas. Third, farmers are apparently hit in two ways. Producer prices are lower, and input prices are up or inputs not available.

Preliminary analysis of a garment industry survey in Ethiopia on COVID-19 impact

"Results of 20 interviews with managers from garment and textile factories"

Measures

In Ethiopia, Electronic Single Window Cuts Costs and Time to Trade

“The new online platform automates trade procedures and replaces the need for physical, manual, and duplicate processes. It also plays a key role in enhancing transparency for trade, which is important for easing the movement of critical supplies during the pandemic”

Resources for Investors

Ministry of Health provides informative Amharic flyers and brochures on COVID-19 symptoms, prevention measures, and advice.

 

Analysis

Finding Africa’s path: Shaping bold solutions to save lives and livelihoods in the COVID-19 crisis

Protecting lives. We present a new analysis showing that bold steps will be needed to strengthen Africa’s health-system capacity over the next 100 days, at a potential cost of more than $5 billion.

Safeguarding livelihoods. We show that the jobs or incomes of 150 million Africans are vulnerable in the crisis, and we share a new analysis of the interventions required to mitigate the economic damage.

Finding the right path. We consider how governments can make optimal decisions on lockdowns, shutdowns, and shielding of people at the highest risk of contracting the virus, thereby achieving the best possible outcomes in protecting lives and safeguarding livelihoods.”

COVID-19 in Africa: Protecting lives and economies

People: Anywhere between 300,000 and 3.3 million African people could lose their lives as a direct result of COVID-19, depending on the intervention measures taken to stop the spread.

Prosperity: The impact on African economies could be the slowing of growth to 1.8 percent in the best-case scenario or a contraction of 2.6 percent in the worst case. This has the potential to push 27 million people into extreme poverty.

Partnerships: African economies are interconnected: our response must bring us together as one. The development finance institutions must at this time play an unprecedented counter-cyclical role to protect the private sector and save jobs.”

Africa’s Pulse

Economies in Sub-Saharan Africa could lose between $37 billion and $79 billion in output losses in 2020 due to COVID-19 (coronavirus), according to a new World Bank regional economic analysis

The region could face a severe food security crisis, with agricultural production expected to contract between 2.6% and 7%

The World Bank Group and the International Monetary Fund have called for a “bilateral debt standstill,” which the report notes should be an important part of the global response to soften the impact of COVID-19 on Africa’s poor”

Measures

Africa Joint Continental Strategy for COVID-19 OUTBREAK

“OBJECTIVES:

1. Coordinate efforts of Member States, African Union agencies, the World Health Organization, and other partners to ensure synergy and minimize duplication.

2. Promote evidence-based public health practice for surveillance, prevention, diagnosis, treatment, and control of COVID-1

The strategy will be implemented through two major operational units: (a) Africa Task Force for Coronavirus (AFTCOR), (b) Africa CDC’s Incident Management System.”

Resources for Investors

Access to affordable financing for local manufacture of pharmaceutical and medical supplies in Africa: this is a summary report of an AUDA - NEPAD webinar on how local manufacturers of pharmaceutical and medical supplies can access affordable financing to scale production to combat COVID-19

 

Analysis

Emerging Priorities and Principles for Managing the Global Economic Impact of COVID-19

“Public health must remain at the core of the policy response, keeping people safe and supporting rapid progress on treatment options and a vaccine over the coming months. In addition, four issues were found to deserve particular attention as policy-makers think about next steps to achieve a robust recovery: identifying effective channels for rapid disbursements to firms; supporting vulnerable workers and households with precision; overcoming borrowing constraints for low- and middle-income countries affected by the crisis; and balancing emergency responses with expanding policy priorities beyond GDP growth.”

Measures

International Labor Organisation calls for action from the global garment industry to support manufacturers survive the disruption caused by COVID-19 and to protect workers

Resources for Investors

The United Kingdom CDC provides guidance to investors on topics such as business integrity, job protection, customer protection.

COVID-19 critical supplies: the manufacturing repurposing challenge

“As the global COVID-19 emergency continues to unfold, one urgent problem is the shortage of critical supplies such as masks, ventilator and test kits for both the healthcare sector and the wider population. Policymakers are calling for firms across manufacturing sectors to temporarily repurpose their production in order to increase global production capacity. Building on a recent study, this article reviews some of the key manufacturing challenges involved in repurposing and discusses potential ways to mitigate them.”

How are companies responding to the coronavirus crisis?

The World Economic Forum provides examples of how organizations globally are tackling the pandemic

Managing a manufacturing plant through the coronavirus crisis

Three areas of focus can help plant leaders navigate the transition from initial crisis response to the “next normal”:

Protect the workforce: Formalize and standardize operating procedures, processes, and tools that help keep staff safe. Build workforce confidence through effective, two-way communication that responds to employees’ concerns through flexible adaptation.

Manage risks to ensure business continuity: Anticipate potential changes and model the way the plant should react well ahead of the fluctuations to enable rapid, fact-based actions.

Drive productivity at a distance: Continue to effectively manage performance at the plant while physical distancing and remote working policies remain in place.

A leader’s guide: Communicating with teams, stakeholders, and communities during COVID-19

“So we counsel this: pause, take a breath. The good news is that the fundamental tools of effective communication still work. Define and point to long-term goals, listen to and understand your stakeholders, and create openings for dialogue. Be proactive. But don’t stop there. In this crisis leaders can draw on a wealth of research, precedent, and experience to build organizational resilience through an extended period of uncertainty, and even turn a crisis into a catalyst for positive change.”

Workforce Principles for the COVID-19 Pandemic Stakeholder Capitalism in a Time of Crisis

“These guiding principles and the four workforce management imperatives outlined in this document are a preliminary response to the unfolding crisis. They are intended to serve as a tool for Chief Human Resources Officers (CHROs) and other business leaders. While businesses may need to adjust measures according to different policy environments, the concept of stakeholder capitalism can provide a framework for a responsible course of action at this pivotal moment. “

INTERIM ADVICE FOR IFC CLIENTS ON PREVENTING AND MANAGING HEALTH RISKS OF COVID-19 IN THE WORKPLACE

“The main objective of this Interim Advice document is to collate and provide publicly available advice from internationally recognized sources to help IFC clients rapidly identify measures for preventing and managing outbreaks of COVID-19 in the workplace and for responding to community COVID-19 infection. “

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